Newsletter Archive

No.	Title / Subject	Date
		2000
1	Nasdaq falls to 2300 - Investors start to Panic! - "This is the headline that you could be reading within weeks. Earlier this year we sent the following chart to our clients entitled 'Different Markets - Same Shape' comparing the Nasdaq bubble to Japan's Nikkei 225 bubble of the late 1980's . . . "	Oct
2	Mind The Gap! - "The US trade deficit hit a record $34BN in September, a rise of 15% on the previous month and far worse than the expected $31BN figure. Does anybody care? . . . "	Nov
3	Are The Markets Skating on Thin Ice? - "Investors, both institutional and private, are confused. The past couple of years have provided some dramatic swings in sentiment. . ."	Dec
		2001
4	The Tale of Two Indices - "One year ago, we re-stated our concerns in respect of the US equity market bubble, particularly within the technology arena . . . "	Jan
5	Clinton's Legacy - "In his final economic report to congress, President Clinton summarized that his term in office had depicted eight years of prosperity and progress . . ."	Jan
6	All That Glistens....? -"..think of gold as money and not just a commodity. Gold has maintained its real value in money terms for over two thousand years........."	Feb
7	Will the Sun Ever Rise Again? - " Who would have thought that just over a decade ago, their stock and real estate markets were about to implode."	Mar
8	Greenspan Hangs Tough - "Earlier this year we wrote 'The tale of two indices' in which we commented that the bursting bubble did not only relate to the Nasdaq, but also the S&P 500, the Dow and even the mighty Dollar. Since that update, the S&P 500 blue chip index has joined the Nasdaq in being officially a bear market ......"	Apr
9	Equity Bulls Still in Denial - "That's it then! Five aggressive ½% rate cuts by the Fed and the promise of tax reductions have done the job. The bear market in the US is over, with the Nasdaq bottom witnessed on the 4th April 2001, since when it has rallied by a near 40%. ........"	May
10	"Don't Fight the Fed?" - "Don't fight the Fed" has been the mantra trotted out by the investment community during the first half of 2001. This, based on the notion that US monetary growth and aggressive interest rate cuts will ultimately engender the hoped for 'V shaped' recovery desperately sought to sustain current stock market valuations.........."	Jun
11	East Looks Best - "Unless a frequent traveller, it can be confusing to work out time zones and the exact time difference with one's own home base. In respect of a UK home base, an easier way to remember whether to add or subtract time zones is the short statement "East is least, West is best"............"	Jul
12	Dollar Dilemma - "In an earlier newsletter issue entitled Don't Fight the Fed, we commented that whilst logic might suggest an aggressive easing of interest rates, as witnessed by the Federal Reserve, would lead to a stronger economy and rising asset prices, this is unlikely to be the case .........."	Aug
13	The Dow Disappoints ... more to follow - "In April of this year we wrote in "Greenspan Hangs tough" that whilst the tech heavy Nasdaq was well into a bear market, .........."	Sep
14	Then and Now ... Credit Overstretch - "In our March 2001 overview “Will the Sun Ever Rise Again? …” comment was made on the unrealistic expectations placed on Japanese asset values during the bubble period of 1985 through to the 1990 bust, AND on the problems created by too loose credit policies...... "	Oct
15	You Had Better Hope for Inflation - "The worst nightmare for policy makers and economists alike, that of a fully synchronised global recession, appears to be happening before our very eyes."	Nov
16	Ring Out the Old - Bring In the New - "As the year 2001 closes, one may pause to reflect on the well-known Chinese saying, "we live in interesting times"	Dec
		2002
17	2001 … Rest in Peace - "2001 was certainly a memorable year …. And for the majority of investors it was a year to forget. It all started so well, ....."	Jan
18	Confidence or Trickery -"In our forever fast changing world, where politics and economics are increasingly integrated, the word "confidence" is extremely important. If confidence in any part of the financial system fails ....."	Feb
19	HOPE And DEBT - "The Federal Reserve left US interest rates on hold last week (as have the Bank of England) but moved to a 'neutral bias'. The financial community take this as a positive sign in that the economic outlook is rosier (confirmed by Uncle Al) as no further interest rate cuts are necessary. The flip side of this ...."	Mar
20	Bull or Bear ...... Who Cares? - "Over the past eighteen months, this newsletter has sought to guide its readers on a variety of investment issues ranging from the massively overvalued western equity markets, ..."	Apr
21	$US 300 GOLD PRICE …… and Climbing! - "As I pen this missive, I have CNBC humming away in the background, for a little light relief as one toils through their analytical chores. The message, "Gold Price Soars" has appeared on the screen."	May
22	Crunch time for the Greenback - "In our August 2001 missive Dollar Dilemma, we noted that although the majority of investors into US assets had been surprised by the magnitude of the equity market falls, foreigners had taken heart from the currency gains received .... "	Jun
23	Depressing News …… For Some! - "Like most things in life, economic contractions come in different sizes. Economists though, label them under just two headings, "recession" and "depression", ........"	Jul/Aug
24	Oh, No, Wrong Result - "In our November 2001 issue You had better hope for inflation we painted the case for how inflation is measured and how the central banks were responding to the economic slowdown, concluding that the judge was still out in respect of inflation or deflation looking forward. ........"	Sep
25	Only Another 50% To Go! - "As can be seen from the above chart, the bear market in US stocks has lasted for over two years in duration. Despite a 40% fall since the September 2000 highs, ....."	Oct
26	Oiling The Wheels! - "The Greek historian Thucydides wrote that nations go to war out of honour, fear and self-interest. Nations also go to war over resources, especially those nations prone to resource scarcity. Of all of the world's resources, none is more likely to provide conflict between nations than oil and water........"	Nov
		2003
27	Reading The Tea Leaves "So there we have it. 2002 was the third year of losses for all of the major stock market indices. The all-important Dow Jones Industrial Average index (from a psychological point of view) has now fallen in value over three consecutive years. This has only happened four times......."	Dec/Jan
28	Golden Insurance - "It is some nine months since we last commented on Gold,............"	Feb
29	Clear Vision - "The moment of truth has arrived! After months of diplomatic wrangling, the President of the United States has said enough is enough. Saddam either gets out of town or he will be thrown out............."	Mar
30	The Moment of Truth for the Dollar Reserve - "In the 30 years since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods International Monetary System, the global economy has been flooded with dollar liquidity. International reserves are one of the best measures of that liquidity............."	Apr/May
31	Bear Market Rallies! - "Talk of a new bull market has started. The CNBC and Bloomberg channels have seen their ratings rebound. Day trading has made a comeback and online trading has surged over the last six weeks.............."	Jun
32	It’s All About Yield - "Perhaps the most important indicator in the world today, aside from the US dollar, is that of the US treasury 10-year bond yield. Why? Because the dollar is the word’s reserve currency and ............."	Jul
33	A House is Not a Home - "A wonderful song by Bacharach/David, sung with passion by Dionne Warwick. Perhaps I am showing my age? However, it seems a fitting title for this, our latest look at the global backdrop ............."	Aug/Sep
34	The Colour of Money - "New $20 bills were released in America this month, backed by a $30 million advertising campaign designed to reassure the public about the change in appearance. ............."	Oct
35	A Load of Bull - "Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy or BSE played havoc within the United Kingdom farming community during the 1990’s and has tragically killed many victims whom scientists believe may have eaten the diseased beef. Mad Cow Disease as BSE was quickly labelled, . ............."	Dec/Jan
		2004
36	Deflation is Here OR Near! - "Since we started these reports in the year 2000, we have touched on the subject of Inflation and deflation. In the November 2001 missive, . ............."	Feb/Mar
37	The End of Easy Money - "It has been a while since we discussed the cost of money, at least as evidenced by the Sovereign debt markets ............."	Apr/May
38	The Most Precious of Metals - "As the Athens Olympic Games wind to an end, with sports fans the world over thrilled by the emotional highs and lows of athletes “Going for Gold”, we realise that it has been some time since we have discussed the precious metals arena.............."	Jul/Aug
39	A picture paints a thousand words - "We cannot remember who first stated the above, but suspect that like so many thought provoking sayings, it will have emanated from China. Either way, we will use not one but three pictures to build the case in respect of the Global deflationary backdrop as we see it..............."	Oct/Nov
		2005
40	Beware the Consensus - "One of the common themes throughout these reports has been the unsustainable build up of debt, both Government, corporate (via bond issuance) and personal, with the likely effect on various asset classes as this debt deflates. ..............."	Jan/Feb
41	Stagflation or Speculation? - "Stagflation is a word that has crept back into the vocabulary of Central Bankers, economists’ and of the investment world in general................"	Mar/Apr
42	The Final Kiss Goodbye? - "Whether you are a Bull or Bear in respect of the Stock market, you could be forgiven for falling asleep of late. It’s been so boring As can be seen from the following chart of the all important S&P 500 index, a rally OR a Bull market ................"	Jun/Jul
43	Break Out OR Fake Out? - "The price of Gold is back on the financial airwaves, vying with Crude Oil and Natural Gas as “the place to be”, according to most commentators on CNBC and Bloomberg This is not surprising, ................"	Aug/Sep
44	A Changing of the Guard - "On Monday, 24th October 2005, President Bush nominated Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, when he retires on 31st January 2006 ................"	Oct/Nov
		2006
45	Turning Paper to Gold - "Sitting on the west coast of the United States, where incidentally the booming Californian real estate market appears to have stopped in its tracks, its the President’s day holiday (officially it is still the observance of George Washington’s birthday, but was hijacked by President “Tricky Dickie” Nixon back in 1971) ................"	Jan/Feb
46	Over a Barrel - "The price of Oil and the derivatives of it are certainly in the news today, particularly as the $US Crude Oil price has reached $75 a barrel for the first time in history. ................"	Mar/Apr
47	“De” and “Re” Confusion - "American President, Harry Truman, was not a patient chap. He once bellowed, “I want a one-armed economist so that the guy could never make a statement and then say “on the other hand.” If only!. ................"	May/Jun
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