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  Weekly Market Overview   

Week ending 2nd June 2006      

It was another volatile week for the financial markets’ as investors were buffeted by the psychological swings between the bulls, who read into the ‘tealeaves of data’ that interest rates may be near a peak in the all important US, due to continued evidence of a consumer slowdown, more pedestrian house price inflation and fairly lacklustre jobs creation. Whereas the bears sense the interest rates may spike higher due to acceleration in the official measure of inflation. ‘The price of goods & services’.


Indices - Year to Date (2nd June2006)

For the US a holiday shortened week saw the release of the May FOMC minutes and a disappointing jobs creation of only 75000 new jobs in May, albeit that the official unemployment rate eased from 4.7% to 4.6%,. The equity market fell sharply at the beginning of the shortened trading week, as consumer data showed a fall off in May versus April, only to rally on the FOMC minutes and jobs creation number that appeared towards week’s end.

For the week, the Dow eased by 0.3%, whilst the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

Europe’s largest mutual insurer, Standard Life, confirmed that its planned flotation in July had gained 98% of its members’ votes. Meanwhile the EU commission raised its forecast for Eurozone GDP growth to a range of 0.5% to 0.9% in the 2nd & 3rd quarters of 2006. Unemployment in the Eurozone remained unchanged in April at the 8% level. At a stock level BAA remained the target of bid activity, whilst the Telecoms sector proved to be a safe haven. Vodafone shares rallied in price after the company announced a loss of £22bn, the largest in European corporate history. Crazy world that it is but punters were urged on by a promised increased dividend and a £9bn pay out as part of the company’s new business strategy. The UK FTSE 100 Index fell by 0.5% over the week, whilst the French CAC and German Dax were lower by 1.7% and 1.8% respectively


Out East, China’s tax authorities announced that they are to impose a 20% tax on the resale of a home owned for less than 5 years in a further attempt to take the steam out of the Real Estate market and credit build up. Japanese industrial production for April rose by 1.5%, whilst in Hong Kong, the Bank of China IPO enjoyed a strong trading debut. As with their Western counterparts, it was an erratic trading week with much volatility for Equities. Over the week Japan’s Nikkei fell by 1.1% as the Hang Seng was even.

The $US index fell by 1% as US Treasury Bond yields eased. The 5 & the 10 yield were lower by 1.5% and 1.6% respectively, although their equivalent in the UK, Eurozone and Japan rose.

With the Commodities complex, the $Oil price jumped by 1.4% over the week to$72.3 a barrel, and the $Gold price fell by 2.3% to $639oz.

Next week we get to see the latest US trade balance. Consumer confidence data and Mortgage applications, while the Bank of England MPC and the European Central Bank decide in any interest rate change.

It’s to be ‘all change’ time again at the head of the US Treasury. George W has nominated the Chief Executive of Goldman Sachs, Hank Paulson, as the next Secretary to the US Treasury, bidding ‘au revoir’ to John Snow. With Paulson’s pedigree and connections, some suggest that he may even be as revered as another Goldman executive, Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin, whilst we personally feel that he is going to need every part of his skills and the luck of the Irish.

“Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn out”

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Table of Indices
Exchng   Jun-02 Week Chg Week % Mnth Chg Mnth % Year Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %
------ -------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------
TSX    11898.69   135.94   1.2%   154.17   1.3%   626.43   5.6%  3484.94  41.4%
IPC    19421.73  -163.48  -0.8%   760.65   4.1%  1619.02   9.1% 12291.85 172.4%
BVSP   37942.18  -687.53  -1.8%  1412.14   3.9%  4486.24  13.4% 20850.18 122.0%
FTSE    5764.60   -26.40  -0.5%    40.80   0.7%   145.80   2.6% -1165.60 -16.8%
CAC-40  4959.70   -85.39  -1.7%    29.52   0.6%   244.47   5.2%  -998.62 -16.8%
DAX     5687.04  -101.32  -1.8%    -5.82  -0.1%   278.78   5.2% -1271.10 -18.3%
MIB-30 36474.00  -132.00  -0.4%    56.00   0.2%  1103.00   3.1% -6517.00 -15.2%
Swiss   7665.08   -14.39  -0.2%    60.68   0.8%    81.15   1.1%    94.98   1.3%
Nikkei 15789.31  -181.45  -1.1%   321.98   2.1%  -322.12  -2.0% -3145.03 -16.6%
HngSng 15912.71    17.61   0.1%    54.82   0.3%  1036.28   7.0% -1049.39  -6.2%
AllOrd  5040.40    25.70   0.5%    68.10   1.4%   331.60   7.0%  1887.90  59.9%
* Change since 31/12/1999 
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Color Codes: Blue = Record close; Red = Big loser; Green = Big winner; Aqua = Record close with big gain
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