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  Weekly Market Overview   

Week ending 23rd May 2008   

This will be a brief “week ending” due to the extended weekend for the US and the UK.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting were released this week and the markets’ didn’t like what they read. The US Central Bank slashed its growth forecast but raised its expectations on inflation leading to speculation that the Fed’s easing cycle on interest rates had ended.


Indices - Year to Date (23rd May 2008)

After last week’s fairy tale inflation data, as measured by CPI, this week saw another howler as the April Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 0.2%.April home sales disappointed as did the aforementioned Fed minutes. The Dow fell by 3.9% over the week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ending lower by 3.5% and 3.3% respectively.

The Euro-Zone faired little better as the ZEW economic sentiment index for May fell, despite the fastest pace of economic growth for Germany in Q108 in 12 years.UK GDP came in as expected, at 2.5% annualised. The FTSE 100 index lost 3.4%, against losses for the French CAC of 2.8% and 3% for the German DAX.

Out East, Japan’s Q108 GDP grew at 3.3%, bolstered by exports to Asia and emerging markets against the slowdown of business with the US. China has seen a continued rise in the Country’s savings rate to an extraordinary 40%, whilst Americans remain in a negative savings rate. The Nikkei fell by 1.5% and the Hang Seng lost 3.5%.

On the currency front, the $US index declined by 1.2% to 71.96,whilst the Pound Sterling received a boost from a smaller than expected fall in April retail sales. US Treasuries had a “telling week,” in that yields hardly budged despite a rough week for stocks. The 5 year yield actually gained 0.2%, ending the week at 3.12% whilst the 10 year eased by 0.5% to 3.83%.

Within the Commodities Complex the crude oil price jumped by 4.9% to another record high, at $132 a barrel, whilst the price of Gold added 2.9% to end the week at $926oz.

Next week will see the latest S&P/Case Shiller home price index for the US, together with the April new home sales and durable goods orders, whilst the UK also gets to see the latest house price data, together with loan totals for house purchases. The latest M3 money supply and consumer confidence data is released for the Euro-Zone whilst in Japan, the April jobless rate is announced.

A recent article in USA Today, American taxpayers are liable for a record $US57.3 Trillion in federal liabilities to cover the lifetime benefits of everyone eligible for Medicare, Social Security and other Government programmes. To save you doing the maths, it works out at $500,000 per American household and more than 4 times what Americans owe in personal debt and mortgages.

“Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.”

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Table of Indices

Exchng   May-23 Week Chg  Week % Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %
------ -------- --------  ------ --------  ------ -------- ------ -------- ------
TSX    14723.36  -260.84   -1.7%   786.32    5.6%   890.30   6.4%  6309.61  75.0%
IPC    31068.70  -418.25   -1.3%   787.29    2.6%  1531.87   5.2% 23938.82 335.8%
BVSP   71451.80 -1315.10   -1.8%  3583.40    5.3%  7806.93  12.3% 54359.80 318.0%
FTSE    6087.30  -217.00   -3.4%     0.00    0.0%  -369.60  -5.7%  -842.90 -12.2%
CAC-40  4933.77  -144.27   -2.8%   -62.77   -1.3%  -680.31 -12.1% -1024.55 -17.2%
DAX     6944.05  -212.50   -3.0%    -4.77   -0.1% -1123.27 -13.9%   -14.09  -0.2%
MIB-30 33874.00 -1320.00   -3.8%  -666.00   -1.9% -5011.00 -12.9% -9117.00 -21.2%
Swiss   7459.94  -193.77   -2.5%   -69.06   -0.9% -1024.52 -12.1%  -110.16  -1.5%
Nikkei 14012.20  -261.00   -1.8%   245.34    1.8% -1295.58  -8.5% -4922.14 -26.0%
HngSng 24714.07 -1089.58   -4.2% -1041.28   -4.0% -3098.58 -11.1%  7751.97  45.7%
AllOrd  5866.20  -164.20   -2.7%   213.50    3.8%  -554.80  -8.6%  2713.70  86.1%

* Change since 31/12/1999 
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Color Codes: Blue = Record close; Red = Big loser; Green = Big winner; Aqua = Record close with big gain
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