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  Weekly Market Overview   

Week ending 10th April 2009   

Welcome back to normal services, albeit that yours truly is still travelling.

The main event during the past fortnight, aside of the G20 meeting in London, has been the latest US “initiative,” called the Public-Private investment plan (PPIP), which is really a TARP 2 where the Treasury and the FIDC, by way of 6X leverage, have $0.5Trillion of tax payers money (growing to a possible $1Tr) to subsidise a select group of institutional investors to purchase toxic assets, with unknown values. Aside of the immorality of the scheme, the size of the problem to tackle the US residential & commercial real estate debt is $11Trillion and 43.5Trillion respectively.


Indices - Year to Date (9th April 2009)

US Federal regulators closed down two more banks, one in Colorado and one in North Carolina, bringing the total of failed banks this year to 23. Economic data released this holiday shortened week included the trade deficit for February, which shrank by 28%, mainly due to collapsing US imports and consumer credit for February, which came in at $7.5BN versus a revised $8.1Bn in January. The Dow gained 0.8% over the week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq higher by 1.7% and 1.9% respectively.

Euro-Zone PPI in February fell by 1.8% whilst retail sales for the same month fell by 4% year on year. Q408 GDP for the Zone was forecast at -4% annualised and worse than expected. For the UK the February trade deficit improved slightly whilst industrial production for the same month collapsed by 12.5% year on year. The FTSE 100 index lost 1.1%, whilst the French CAC and the German DAX were higher by 0.5% and 2.4% respectively.

Out East, Japanese corporate bankruptcies rose to a 6 year high in March, whilst the Government this week announced a $US153BN stimulus package which is equal to 3% of GDP and will add to the debt that the OECD already forecasts at 197% of GDP. Elsewhere, South Korea authorities stated that a $100BN of state guarantees will be extended to banks’ overseas debts and India’s industrial production in February fell by the most in 14 years. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng both rose by 2.5%.

The $US index rose by 2% to 85.79 with the Mexican Peso another notable winner, up by 3.3%, whilst on the downside the euro and the British pound gave up 2.55 and 1.4% respectively. German 10-year bund yields added 3 bps to 3.26%, whilst Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields gained 4bp, ending the week at 1.45%. The US Treasury 5 year yield was flat over the week, ending it at 1.89%, whilst the 10 year gained 0.6% to 2.93%.

Within the commodities complex the $crude oil price eased by 0.6% to $52.2 a barrel, whilst the price of $Gold fell by 1%, ending the week at $884oz.

Next week is another holiday shortened week for Euro-land and the UK, with the former releasing March CPI and February trade data whilst the UK announces March retail sales numbers. The US also releases March CPI and advance retail sales plus the latest housing starts, whilst Japanese consumer confidence and department store sales for March are also due .

The G20 meeting was a damp squid, with none of the Obama/Brown objectives being achieved and in particular their hope of more “collective stimulus plans,” albeit that they did agree to $US1 trillion to Nations in need, via the auspices of a beefed up IMF. Thus far the best part of $15 Trillion has been committed to reviving the global economy by getting people to borrow more. Rather than ensuring massive tax rises in the near future, they would have been better rewarded by giving large tax cuts now.

“Did you ever notice that when you put the words "The" and "IRS" together, it spells "THEIRS?”

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Table of Indices

Exchng   Apr-10 Week Chg  Week % Mnth Chg  Mnth % Year Chg Year % 2K Chng* 2000 %
------ -------- --------  ------ --------  ------ -------- ------ -------- ------
TSX     9187.12   121.36    1.3%   466.73    5.4%   199.42   2.2%   773.37   9.2%
IPC    20530.63  -403.15   -1.9%   903.88    4.6% -1849.69  -8.3% 13400.75 188.0%
BVSP   45538.71  1147.73    2.6%  4612.84   11.3%  7988.40  21.3% 28446.71 166.4%
FTSE    3983.71   -45.96   -1.1%    57.61    1.5%  -450.46 -10.2% -2946.49 -42.5%
CAC-40  2974.18    15.44    0.5%   166.84    5.9%  -243.79  -7.6% -2984.14 -50.1%
DAX     4491.12   106.13    2.4%   406.36    9.9%  -319.08  -6.6% -2467.02 -35.5%
MIB-30 18134.00   454.00    2.6%  1326.00    7.9% -1930.00  -9.6%-24857.00 -57.8%
Swiss   5070.60    27.61    0.5%   198.27    4.1%  -463.93  -8.4% -2499.50 -33.0%
Nikkei  8964.11   214.27    2.4%   854.58   10.5%   104.55   1.2% -9970.23 -52.7%
HngSng 14901.41   355.72    2.4%  1325.39    9.8%   513.93   3.6% -2060.69 -12.1%
AllOrd  3617.50   -56.50   -1.5%    85.20    2.4%   -41.80  -1.1%   465.00  14.8%

* Change since 31/12/1999 
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Color Codes: Blue = Record close; Red = Big loser; Green = Big winner; Aqua = Record close with big gain
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